2024 is in full swing, which means that the country is preparing for one of the most anticipated and high-stakes elections in American history. Consequently, there are many factors at play during the lead up to November. The sitting President Joseph R. Biden is running for re-election. Former President Donald J. Trump faces 91 felony counts across four different prosecutions, which could lead to possible jail time. The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary results have been released. The political landscape could not be any more chaotic at the moment, but this article will break it down for you and hopefully make it less overwhelming.
The Iowa caucus results were released on January 15th, with former President Donald Trump claiming 51 percent of votes, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 21 percent who recently dropped out of the Presidential race, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 19 percent. Well, what exactly is a caucus in the first place? In a caucus, m
embers from a political party meet to discuss their favorite candidates, and vote after a period of discussion. Unlike primaries, which decide the party’s singular nomination for President in the Presidential race, this is a more informal method of seeing who voters prefer and who they will likely cast in their ballot during the actual primary.
On the other hand, the New Hampshire primary results were much closer. The New Hampshire primary allows for Independents to cast their vote in the party primary of their choosing and this benefited Haley tremendously. Although Trump still clinched 54 percent of the vote, due to DeSantis dropping out on the 21st, Haley was able to get some of the vote that was being split coming out with a little over 40%, a significant increase in her previous polling in Iowa. However, Haley’s not being able to win in New Hampshire is very significant considering the state is composed of mostly moderate Republicans and Independents which are Haley’s forte. The results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary indicate that Donald Trump has the large majority of the party’s support and will likely get the nomination.
Even though Donald Trump is likely to get the Republican party’s nomination to face off against Biden, Nikki Haley polls more strongly against Biden than Trump does. In fact, the top two Republican contenders, Trump and Haley, are all favorites for the presidency above Biden based on NBC polls and data. According to a poll by CBS News, Haley has 53 percent and Biden 45 percent preference. It is also important to note that Haley does better than Trump does against Biden in terms of voters with college degrees, women, and independents- key factors in general elections.
Some political analysts have said that Trump’s main motivation for running for President is to escape possible jail time. Trump’s strategy has been to attempt to delay all variou
Oliver Kolb
s prosecutions and push them into 2025. On the other hand if any of the prosecutions do result in a conviction prior to the election, polling indicates that swing state voters will likely vote Biden over Trump. What could prevent Biden from being re-elected? Perceived mismanagement of the economy and a worsening of foreign crises including Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
In the foot race to the presidency, it has become increasingly clear that the rematch between Trump and Biden is in the near future. With Biden running for re-election and Donald Trump looking for a political comeback, there is no doubt these next few months will be interesting. The fate of the country is in the hands of the voters and it is imperative that people go out to vote to make their voice heard.
